Heading into the last days of the regular season, few issues are settled regarding not only seeding for the Big East tournament but also how many Big East teams will make the NCAA tournament. Here’s a guide to the story of tournament conference seeding and a primer on Big East bracketology.
The Seeding
Only two teams can claim the one seed and the “regular season championship”. Villanova owns a slight lead over Creighton despite playing four fewer conference games. Creighton would have to win one more game out of its final three from Villanova for the one seed. The good news for the BlueJays is they’ll have a chance to take on the Wildcats Wednesday night at Finneran Pavillion, an almost impossible place for visitors to win. If they channel what they showed in Omaha two weeks ago and bookend a win Wednesday with wins at Xavier tomorrow and at home against Butler on March 6 they’ll earn the one seed and a sweep over Villanova giving them the right to claim their second straight regular season title. Villanova plays at Butler on Sunday and at Providence in eight days to try to maintain their hold on the one spot.
More important than the one seed might be the three, four, and five seeds as with the expansion to eleven teams those in the sixth position and lower will need to play four games to win the Big East tournament. Seton Hall despite its recent struggles maintains the three seed with a 10-7 (.588 winning percentage) record and clinches a bye with at least one win against either Connecticut or St. John’s next week. Connecticut is in fourth place at 8-6 (.571) and they’ll clinch a bye with one win beating either Marquette tomorrow, Seton Hall on Wednesday, or Georgetown next Saturday. Things could get really interesting for the other byes. Xavier currently sits in fifth place at 5-5 (.500) and gets a bye winning at least two of their three remaining games against Creighton and at Georgetown and Marquette. If those three stumble St. John’s, Providence, or Georgetown could lay claim to a bye but any of those three teams would need to at least sweep their remaining games. (FYI Providence travels to St. John’s on Wednesday. )
The three remaining teams- Butler (currently eighth), Marquette (10th), and DePaul (who clinched 11th) will play opening night.
The Bids
As of this writing only Villanova and Creighton appear to be locks for the NCAAs with the Bracket Matrix having Villanova a two seed and Creighton a five. The Bracket Matrix as of February 25 has Xavier in as a ten seed, Seton Hall an 11 seed, and Connecticut as a twelve seed. Here’s what the best guess as to what each team probably needs to get in the NCAAs
Seton Hall (2 wins). Almost every game the Pirates play will be against an opponent with NCAA hopes- Wednesday at home with Connecticut and next Saturday at St. John’s. Win those two and the committee might be hard pressed to keep them out. Lose one or two and they’ll have work to do at Madison Square Garden.
Connecticut (2 wins). The Huskies despite what many bracketologists think do have one interesting factor in their favor and that is the possible perception that some of their losses were without James Bouknight made them a lesser team than what would appear in the tournament. They hold wins over USC and Xavier. Getting two from Marquette, Seton Hall, and Georgetown should wrap up a bid.
Xavier (2 wins). The Musketeers have the benefit that all three of their remaining regular season games fall into the “Quad 1 or 2” category at home against Creighton and on the road to Georgetown and Marquette. They do hold wins against Oklahoma and St. John’s which with another good win or two should solidify their spot.
St. John’s (3 wins) The lack of any quality wins in their non-conference record notwithstanding, St. John’s has done some impressive work in conference despite being 8-9 with a wins at home against Villanova and Xavier and road wins at Providence, Marquette and Connecticut. Beating Seton Hall and Providence at home next week followed with a win or two at the Big East tournament gives St. John’s a case for an at-large bid despite a low NET.
Providence (3 wins) What hurts Providence is a 12-11 overall record and a lack of significant non-conference wins (Davidson neutral, TCU on the road). Next week features two Quad 1 opportunities on the road at St. John’s and home against Villanova. Couple those two wins with a win or two in the conference tournament and they’ll get consideration.
Marquette (5 wins) Before we laugh off Marquette’s at large chances at 11-12 consider four of those wins were home against Wisconsin and on the road at Creighton, St. John’s, and North Carolina. The three remaining regular season games at Connecticut and DePaul as well as home versus Xavier are all must wins for an at-large along with a trip to the Big East semifinals which would probably mean another win over either Creighton or Villanova.
Butler, Georgetown, and DePaul all need to win the Big East tournament to make the NCAAs despite each having solid recent results. Only Georgetown can theoretically finish .500 without winning the Big East tournament and even in this crazy season no one is getting an at large bid without having an overall winning record.
The Big Big East Blog 